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Academy Award Predictions: Happy Oscars Everybody! 

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PictureMy dog Oscar chewing on an Oscar

       It’s the most wonderful tiiiime of the year!!! Yes here we are again, the Academy Awards, the greatest achievement in popularity in all of entertainment, the source of agita to end all agita. What do you think will happen come Sunday night? Will “12 Years a Slave” win the big one? Will idiots who want to seem in the know award “American Hustle” the best original screenplay award for absolutely no discernible reason? Will Lupita Nyong’o cap off her incredible red carpet season with the best gown of the night, or will Cate Blanchett continue her reign as queen of everything? Here’s what I think will happen, what I want to happen, and what better not happen. Let me know what you think in the comments. 

BEST PICTURE

  • 12 Years A Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Captain Phillips
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Gravity 
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • Philomena
  • The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST DIRECTOR

  • David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”
  • Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”
  • Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
  • Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
BEST ACTOR

  • Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
  • Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”
  • Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

BEST ACTRESS

  • Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
  • Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
  • Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
  • Judi Dench, “Philomena”
  • Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”
Picture

“Do you think I give two shits? I’m the coolest person there is regardless of silly awards.”
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“I am perfection.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”
  • Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
  • Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
  • Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
  • Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”’
  • Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
  • Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
  • Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”
  • June Squibb, “Nebraska”

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, “Before Midnight”
  • Billy Ray, “Captain Phillips”
  • Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, “Philomena”
  • John Ridley, “12 Years a Slave”
  • Terence Winter, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
  • Woody Allen, “Blue Jasmine”
  • Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, “Dallas Buyers Club”
  • Spike Jonze, “Her”
  • Bob Nelson, “Nebraska”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • “The Croods”
  • “Despicable Me 2”
  • “Ernest & Celestine”
  • “Frozen”
  • “The Wind Rises”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2,” Pharrell Williams
  • “Let It Go” from “Frozen,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
  • “The Moon Song” from “Her,” Karen O and Spike Jonze
  • “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom,” Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen
  • Will win and should win: “12 Years A Slave”
  • Should have been the winner or at least come in second: “Saving Mr. Banks”
  • Better not win: “American Hustle”

As I said in my review of all the movies in contention, “12 Years A Slave” is the most deserving film. “Gravity” is coming in at a close second according to predictors like Nate Silver and his friends, but it wouldn’t be as deserving. The real shame here is that absence of “Saving Mr. Banks”, which was one of the best of the year, and definitely better than 7 of the 9 nominees. 

  • Will win and should win: Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”

Although “Gravity” is not the best picture of the year, Cuaron’s direction is a big achievement in a new phase of special effects technology. He should win this one, so long as “12 Years” wins the big one.
 

  • Win win: Matthew McConaughey
  • Who I’d be voting for: Chiwetel
  • Who should have been nominated instead of Christian Bale: Robert Redford, “All is Lost”; Michael B. Jordan, “Fruitvale Station”

There were so so many great male performances this year, so someone worthy had to be snubbed. However, one of the major snubbees, like Redford, whom people said was going to win at one point for chrissakes, should have been nominated over Bale, who is always great but nothing special in “Hustle”. McConaughey surprised many by sweeping all the major awards leading up to this weekend, but so many people want to reward him for his comeback, so that’s understandable. It just sucks that his parade runs over what should have been Chiwetel’s celebration. Not that Matthew wasn’t fantastic or hell maybe even the best of the year. It just shouldn’t have been such a landslide. 

  • Will win and should win: Cate Blanchett
  • Should have been nominated because she was the best of the year aside from Cate: Emma Thompson, “Saving Mr. Banks”

     While this list of leading ladies is extremely impressive (Amy Adams’s great performance is the one thing I’m willing to commend “Hustle” on, that and hairdos), Emma Thompson’s snub is atrocious. Many thought her performance was one for the ages and a strong contender for the winner, yet she’s not on this list. It could be because the category is so strong, but the overall snubbery of “Banks” is so awful that it all seems connected. Like voters got sick of people saying during recent years how the most awarded films, like “The Artist” and “Argo”, were about the industry and how the industry just likes to reward itself and pat itself on the back, so this year voters were like, “Hey, let’s not let those critics say that this year; let’s not reward this movie about the industry even though it’s one of the best of the year.” And so Emma Thompson was a casualty of that, which blows. But it doesn’t really matter, because as I said in my recap, Blanchett’s performance is SICKMAZING. 

  • Will and should win: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
  • Kind of want to win because I’m scared he’ll never get another gig: Barkhad Abdi

Jared Leto has so many things in his favor going into Sunday night: He’s been away from acting for freaking years, focusing on his music instead, and his first shot out of the gate is this incredible performance in a heavily lauded movie. He’s also playing a tragic, kindhearted transgender woman named Rayon, a part up there with Holocaust roles for the most likely to win Oscars. He was incredible, too, so it’s all good. 

  • Better win: Lupita Nyong’o
  • Better not win: Jennifer Lawrence

Lupita was incredible in her first major film role, and really better win. If Jennifer Lawrence wins another award this year just because people want to be her friend and want her to think they’re cool for thinking she’s cool, I’ma be real mad. Last year was her year! Not this year! Argh! Lupita! I love you!

  • Will and should win: “12 Years a Slave”
  • I would probably be voting for: “Philomena”, because I love Coogan and he did a great job
  • I would also probably vote for: “Before Midnight”, because damn. 

I hope “12 Years” will take this one, but I’d be thrilled with an upset by “Before Midnight”, which had a sensational, genius script, or “Philomena”, because I’d love a Steve Coogan acceptance speech. 

  • Might win: “American Hustle”
  • Has an equally good chance of winning: “Her”
  • Better not win: “American Hustle”
  • Should win because shamwow: “Her”

I loved loved “Her”, and if it’s going to win any award, best original screenplay is the one, because damn if it wasn’t the best original screenplay in years. You know what shouldn’t win? “Hustle”, which had great performances but damn if it wasn’t the most disappointing script in years. 

  • Will and should win: “Frozen”

Best movie everrrr! 
LET IT GOOOO, LET IT GOOOOO CAN’T HOLD IT BACK ANYMOOOOORE. LET IT GOOO, LET IT GOOO, TURN AWAY AND SLAM THE DOOR. 

  • Will and should win: “Let It Go”

HERE I STAAAAND AND HERE I’LL STAYYYY! 
No, seriously, this song is amazing. When I saw “Frozen” in the theatre the first time, I broke my cardinal rule of moviegoing and spoke after Idina finished destroying this song: I said to the person next to me “That was amazing.” It was. If all goes as it should, Bobby Lopez will soon become the 12th EGOT in the history of the world. MAHA NAIBU EEBOWAI! 

Other things that should happen:

  • “Gravity” should win all the visual and technical awards
  • Idina Menzel should get a standing ovation
  • Kerry Washington, presenter and fixer, should say something about everything being handled
  • “Blackfish” should win Best Documentary on a write-in vote because it was inexplicably snubbed
  • John Williams should win best score, for “The Book Thief”, for the first time in more than 20 years
  • Some really drunk winner should say how the Oscars don’t really mean anything
  • Host Ellen DeGeneres will make everyone laugh at good-natured, well-meaning, completely nonthreatening and non-harmful jokes

HAPPY OSCARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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